HedgeHog Examples European Bets


HedgeHog examples for European Type bets where the stake isn't returned with the payoff.
Before I go into the examples, let me first explain a few things about the HEDGEHOG screen. Look at any one of the examples below. There are several headings. The only fields that data is entered into, however, are ones colored light blue..."Horse," "Odds Off,", "Bet Type," and "Target Wager." The rest display results. From left to right, "Horse" is an optional field where you'll enter the PP or Name of the horse so you'll have a label. "Odds Off" is the odds you'll use to compute your bets for each horse. "Bet Type" shows you the type of bet you've selected for each horse. Notice that this field has both a blue entry part and a yellow results part. The yellow part shows whether your bet is a Dutch, Hedge, or proportional Dutch or Hedge for that entry. "Amount to Bet" is the amount you are to bet on that particular horse. "Amount Back" is an estimate of the amount you'll get back if that horse wins. If you'll make an overall profit the amount will be the green side, if you'll lose money on that oveall wager, the amount will be in the red side. "Profit" shows the profit or loss you'll make on that wager. "%Profit" is the percent profit or loss you'll make on the entire bet if that horse wins. Target Wager is total amount you want to bet on the race. Its default value is 100 because you can think of everything else in terms of percents, but you can change it to any value. The Total Wager at the top is the total amount you'll actually wager. Generally it's the same as Target Wager, but sometimes it'll differ slightly because of rounding and the fact that you have to bet full units (dollars, pounds, Euros, whatever). At the bottom right of the table you'll see an options box for Minimum bet surrounded by the type of betting payback. Many tracks have a minumum bet of 2 units so that's the default. You can set it to any value you want to match your track, your OTB's minumum, or to your own personal minimum. Be aware that if you set it too high your Total Wager could wind-up being higher than your Target Wager because the extra amounts are not factored into the dutching/hedging equations. As for paybacks, Many tracks outside of the US do not include your bet with the payoff and thus a 2 unit bet on 2.0 odds will return 4 units. If you're betting at a venue that DOES include the bet with the payoff (Such as US tracks) you can select that option from the Menu bar at the top of any screen. The "Bet Type" field allows 5 types of entries: "H" for a full hedge, "D" for a full dutch, A POSITIVE NUMBER, Zero, or a NEGATIVE NUMBER. If you enter a positive number, you are telling HedgeHog you want that many times your bet back if this horse wins. For example, if you enter "1" you'll get all your money back but no more if that horse wins, a "2" gets you twice the total bet back, etc. If you enter a zero you'll "dutch" that horse with all other horses that have zeros (or negative numbers as explained below). A "dutch" proportions the money left over from your "fixed bets" (the positive numbers) so that you'll get the same amount back regardless of which dutched horse wins. The exception is the "proportional dutch" which is triggered by entering a negative number. This gives you more back (or less if you enter a number between 0 and -1) on that particular horse relative to the other dutched horse. For example if you want twice as much back on a particular horse because he is your prime bet, You'd enter a -2. For a straight Dutch or Hedge you can also enter "D" or "H" as well as "0" and "1" as explained above.
The best way to explain this is by example. Let's say you want to dutch three horses, horse A, B, and C going off at 5.0, 6.0, and 7.0 (it sometimes takes me weeks to construct these examples). A straight dutch of 100 units on these three looks like this: This example will work with the Free, Lite, and Full versions. It doesn't matter which horse wins, you'll make around 96% profit on your bet. The slight differences are unavoidable because your bets must be rounded to the nearest unit. When you enter a ZERO or "D" in the "Bet Type" column Your bet type is shown in the yellow as "D" for Dutch. The column "% Profit" shows" the percent return on your wager for each horse if he should win. The column "Profit" shows you the amount you'd get back over your initial wager. Since all the bets in these examples assume a 100 unit bet these amounts are the same. A different bet amount (Target Wager) will change the "Profit" column. The "Amount Back" coulmn shows the total amount including your initial wager you'll get back for each horse if he were to win. Back to Top
Next... Dutching does not have to be equal for all horses.
Now let's say that horse C is your prime bet and you want to get twice as much back than for the other two. Set this up by entering a -2 (negative 2) in his "Bet Type" field. Here's how that looks... This example will work with the Lite and Full versions but not the Free version. ...Now you'll get about twice as much back on horse "C" at the expense of less back on "A" and "B." You can use any combination of options in any race. The "-2" in C's row under "Bet Type" tells you this is a proportional dutch... indicated by "PD" in the yellow area. In this case note that the Total Wager 101 instead of the even 100 you wanted to bet. Because of rounding (you can only bet in unit increments) this sometimes happens. Back to Top
Next... The Real Power is in the Hedge.
If you want to HEDGE one of the horses to just get your money back if that horse wins, enter an "H" (or the number "1") for "Bet Type." The yellow column will change to "H" indicating that horse "A" is now hedged. The example below shows "B" and "C" Dutched with "A" Hedged to recover your wager if he should win. This example will work with the Free, Lite, and Full versions. Back to Top
Next... The Hedge can be any percent of your wager.
You can control exactly how much you'll get back on a hedged horse by partially hedging or hedging a horse so you'll get back more than your wager. This is controlled by inputting a positive number into the "Bet Type" column. In the example below I hedged "A" at 50% of the wager by entering .5 in the "Bet Type" column. Note that the yellow status column shows "PH" to indicate that this is a "Partial Hedge." If it's not possible to make a profit on a wager the amount will be displayed in the RED side of the "Amount Back" column as is the case with the partial hedge for horse "A." Also notive that the H/D amounts show that 10 units were used for the Hedged horse, leaving 90 units to be used for the Dutched horses. Hedges are always computed first with the remainder used for the dutched horses. This example will work with the Lite and Full versions, but not the Free version. In this I example, I wanted to triple my money on Horse "A" and dutch the other 2. I entered "3" into the "Bet Type" window for horse "A" and left the other two in the dutch mode. HedgeHog first calculated the bet needed to triple the retrun for "A" then hedged the other two with what was left over. This example will work with the Lite and Full versions, but not the Free version. Back to Top
Next... You control the Payback This example will work with the Full version Only.
You like a 6.0 horse in the 5th and there's a 21.0 longshot you think may be able to steal it. However, a 4.0 shot could take it and you can't ignore the layoff horse at 5.0. What to do? Sound familiar? With hedgehog you can structure your bet seconds before post. One solution would be to "double hedge" the 6.0 horse, throw a few extra bucks at the longshot with a "triple dutch" because it doesn't cost all that much, hedge the layoff horse so you're covered and dutch the 4.0 with what's left. In the example below I entered "- 3" (negative 3) for horse "A," the long shot. I didn't go with a straight dutch because his high odds allowed a large payoff with only minor impact on the potential return from the other horses. The other dutched horse is horse "D", the 4.0 shot. Notice that the return is 3 times as much ($357) for horse "A" as for horse "D" ($120). Again the number isn't exact because of unavoidable rounding. By entering a positive "2" for horse "C" you fix his return at double your money and the "Hedge" entered for horse "B" gets your money back if he should win. And if you don't like this solution you can play "what if" and and see the results instantly. This example uses a straight dutch (horse D), a straight hedge (horse B), a proportional dutch (horse A), and a proportional hedge (horse C). This example will work with the Full version Only. Back to Top
Next... Here's a real day at the track.
I was able to get 7 of the 9 races down to three horses at Santa Anita. All races were playable using HEDGEHOG even though one had an entry going off at 1.6. For this discussion assume 100 units was wagered on each race, but you can enter any wager amount you want in the program.
Race 1
This example will work with the Free, Lite, and Full versions. Since I try to get at least 40% profit this race was was playable by dutching all three equally. The profit column shows I'd get around 42% back regardless of which horse won. If I had wanted more profit, I could have entered an "H" in the "Bet Type" column for KELLY G which would have freed-up more money to bet on the other two. Since Kelly G won the race this would have resulted in a break-even situation. Left as a three-horse dutch, however, a profit was made. Kelly G paid $6.20 to win. Since there was 47 bet on her the return was 145.70, or 45.7% profit. The difference between this and the 41% predicted by the program comes from "odds rounding" as displayed by the tote board. Sometimes the payoff will be a little higher and sometimes it will be a little lower than the actual payoff, but it will always be close enough for practical purposes. Back to Top
Race 2
This example will work with the Free, Lite, and Full versions. No problem here, the odds were good and %PROFIT high. STOODTHETEST paid 14.00 to win for a 259 return (159%) profit. Back to Top
Race 3
This example will work with the Free, Lite, and Full versions. Another easy choice because of overall high odds and %PROFIT. One thing I like to do in cases where a choice of mine is going off at relatively high odds is place more on him. I could have entered a negative number (say -2) for PRIVATE ADMIRER. This would dramatically increase the profit if he were to win while not proportionally reducing the payoff on the others. PRIVATE ADMIRER did win but was DQ'd and placed 2nd. No matter, ABSOLUTE BEST was awarded the win so I got the same return. His payoff was 12.20 and returned 195.20 for the 32 units wagered on him. Back to Top
Race 4
This example will work with the Free, Lite, and Full versions. The 2.5 odds on the favorite, PRETTY NEAT GAL drove the profit margin too low. By hedging her, I could get around 50% back if one of my other choices were to win. Well CONCORD'S SPIRIT paid 8.00 and returned 152 on the 38 units placed on her nose. Back to Top
I couldn't come up with 3 solid choices in race 5 and race 6 didn't have enough paceline information for my taste so I skipped them both. I'll use race 5 as a learning example later.
Race 7
This example will work with the Free, Lite, and Full versions. I couldn't discount the two favorites in this race, but my third horse's odds were high enough to allow me to play all three. FINDER'S FORTUNE took this one, ATLANTIAN was last. What do I care, so long as I have one of them. Back to Top
Race 8
This example will work with the Free, Lite, and Full versions.. I used to skip this kind of race before HEDGEHOG. The entry (HEART OF JOY and BEL'S STARLET) both had super fast races on the SA downhill turf course. SPEEDPLUS showed that GLEN KATE did also. Everyone was touting the entry, but I knew that GLEN KATE had just as good a chance to win. I could have dutched them all because there was a "higher than usual" chance that one of these three would win. Or I could try to beat the entry and I'd at least get my money back. What to do? Play the entry to break even and put the rest on GLEN KATE. Well, GLEN KATE won and paid 7.80 for 148 units back. Back to Top
Race 9
This example will work with the Free, Lite, and Full versions. Again, an easy choice, nearly 60% profit regardless which horse won. It was STYLISH MAJESTY paying 10.80 for 156.60 back on a 29 unit bet. Back to Top
...Race 5 -A learning tool
Getting back to the 5th race, I had 5 horses that I thought had a chance. Dutching all 5 would have produced the following profit margins:
This example works with the full version only because there are over three horses. Actually, this is not too bad since there are 5 horses involved In retrospect this would have been an acceptable bet, especially since the two favorites (OAK FOREST and RATHSALLAH) were included. ALTANERO won paying 22.80 and would have returned 136.80 for the 12 units bet on him
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Let's stay with this race and play "WHAT IF". What if ALTANERO were your prime bet? Let's just get our money back on all but ALTANERO by entering an "H" under "Bet Type" for every other horse.
This example works with the full version only because there are over three horses.. WOW, look at that, we could have made 274 units with the security of not having to worry about the other 4.
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Many times you'll have several horses going off at good odds but you're worried about the favorites. In such a case you can "HEDGE THE CHALK" as follows:
This example works with the full version only because there are over three horses. If one of the two favorites were to have won, we'd get our money back. However if one of our three longer horses were to win we'd make around 120%, not bad, eh?
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Let's look at one more. Let's say that ALTANERO is our prime bet, REGALSTAFF and ESKAY CREEK are secondary bets, and we don't want to worry about the two favorites. By hedging the favorites we get our money back if one of them wins. The other three will be dutched, but by entering a "-2" for ALTANERO, we'll get twice as much back if he wins then if one of the other two dutched horses wins.
This example works with the full version only because there are over three horses.
As you can see HEDGEHOG can change the way you think about betting.
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HedgeHog examples for European Type bets where the stake isn't returned with the payoff.